THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Miami (41-37, 37-39-2 ATS) at Boston (59-19, 40-38 ATS)
The Celtics are shooting for their fifth straight win tonight when they host the Heat inside the TD BankNorth Garden.
Miami lost 93-87 in overtime to the Hornets at home Tuesday, falling as a 4½-point favorite. The loss ended a three-game ATS winning streak that included two road wins at Charlotte 97-92 a week ago as five-point ‘dogs and then at Washington on Saturday, winning 118-104 as a 1½-point road chalk.
The Celtics have won five straight (3-2 ATS) and nine of 10 (6-4 ATS), including seven in a row at home (2-5 ATS). They’ve topped the century mark in their last four games and over their last five they are shooting 50.5 percent from the floor.
Boston has won seven of the last eight (5-3 ATS) in this rivalry and two of three this season (1-2 ATS). Back on March 18, the Celtics edged the Heat 112-108 in overtime and failed as seven-point home favorites. Boston has gotten the cash in six of the last nine meetings between these two, but the road team has cashed in six of the last eight.
Miami is on ATS slides of 9-22 against Atlantic Division squads, but otherwise on ATS runs of 11-5 on Fridays, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-1 after a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, Boston is on ATS slides of 3-11 at home, 4-10 against Eastern Conference teams and 2-7 at home against teams with a losing road record, but the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four after one day off and 4-1 in their last five Friday games.
The Heat are on over runs of 17-6-1 after a straight-up loss and 15-5-1 after a non-cover. Boston is riding “over” streaks of 20-8-1 at home, 4-0 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 overall and 13-4-1 at home against teams with losing road records. In this rivalry, the under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings and 7-1-1 in the last nine in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Utah (47-31, 38-40 ATS) at San Antonio (50-28, 38-38-2 ATS)
The struggling Jazz go to San Antonio tonight for a matchup with the Spurs after getting embarrassed in Dallas on Wednesday.
Utah has lost four of its last five (SU and ATS), including Wednesday’s 130-101 loss in Dallas as a 3½-point underdog. The defense has been letting the Jazz down lately, allowing 113.2 points a game over the last five (13 points more than they’ve allowed all season), including an astonishing 54.1 percent shooting from the field.
San Antonio has alternated wins and losses over its last five games (2-3 ATS) and lost at home to the Blazers on Wednesday, 95-83 as a three-point chalk. The Spurs have dropped two straight at home, including a 95-96 loss to the Thunder on March 31 as 13-point favorites. They’ve topped the 100-point mark just once in their last six games (2-4 ATS).
San Antonio has won the last three in this series, including both matchups this season (2-0 ATS). The Spurs got a 119-94 win back on Nov. 21 as 4 ½-point favorites and then went to Utah on Jan. 27 and got a 106-100 win as one-point road favorites. The Spurs are 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10 series clashes and the home team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22, including San Antonio’s 10-1 ATS run in the last 11 at home.
Utah is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 Friday games and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against Southwest Division foes, but it is on ATS slides of 2-12 as a ‘dog, 1-11 as a road ‘dog, 1-7 overall, and 1-4 on the road. San Antonio is on several negative ATS slides, including 1-7 at home, 1-5 against Northwest Division teams, 2-7 against the Western Conference, 2-6 after getting one day off and 4-9 overall.
The Jazz are on “over” streaks of 19-7-1 as underdogs, 5-0 on the road, 6-0 overall, 17-4-1 as road ‘dogs and 5-0 on the road against teams with winning home marks. For the Spurs, the over is on runs of 6-2-1 overall, 12-5-1 against Northwest Division teams, 5-0 after a non-cover, 5-2 as a favorite and 4-0 after a straight-up loss. In this series, the over is 10-3 in the last 13 overall and 10-1 in Texas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New Orleans (48-30, 33-43-2 ATS) at Dallas (47-31, 38-40 ATS)
Having clinched a spot in the playoffs, the Mavericks will now try to end a four-game losing streak at the hands of the Hornets when they host New Orleans inside American Airlines Arena tonight.
The Hornets have dropped three of four (SU and ATS), including Wednesday’s 105-100 setback at home to the Suns as 2½-point favorites. On the bright side, New Orleans has won three of four on the highway (2-2 ATS), including Tuesday’s 93-87 overtime victory in Miami as a 4½-point road underdog.
Dallas earned its playoff spot with a 130-101 home win over Utah on Wednesday, easily cashing as a 3½-point favorite. The Mavs have scored 270 points in their last two games, home wins over the Jazz and Suns, easily covering in both.
New Orleans has won four straight in this series (3-1 ATS) and won both meetings this season, winning 104-97 in Dallas on Jan. 14 as a 4 ½-point favorite and then the Hornets scored a 104-88 home win on March 5 as 6 ½-point favorites. They are 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the last nine series clashes, but the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 and the favorite is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29.
The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five as ‘dogs and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 against Southwest Division teams, but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 8-20 as a road pup, 4-11 after a straight-up loss, 1-4 against the Western Conference and 4-11 after a straight-up loss. The Mavericks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 as a home chalk, but they are on several negative ATS trends, including 1-6 against Southwest Division teams, 4-11 after a spread-cover, 2-5 after getting one day off and 1-6 at home against teams with winning road marks.
New Orleans is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 12-3 overall, 8-3 against the Western Conference, 16-5 on Fridays, 5-1-1 as a ‘dog, 9-2 after getting a day off and 16-5-1 against Southwest Division squads. For Dallas, the over is 16-5 in its last 21 as a favorite and 9-2 in its last 11 at home, but the under is 11-5 in its last 16 against Southwest Division teams and 4-1 in its last five against teams with a winning record. In this rivalry, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 9-2 in the last 11 in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Lakers (63-16, 41-38 ATS) at Portland (50-28, 42-36 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the Western Conference square off at the Rose Garden in Portland when the Lakers visit the Trailblazers.
Los Angeles won its fifth straight last night, getting a 116-102 victory over Denver at home, cashing as an 8½-point favorite. The Lakers have now covered in three of their last four after going through a three-game ATS slide when they dropped two of three SU. They have held to opposition to 98 points or less in eight of their last 10 games.
Portland has won two straight (1-1 ATS) and six of its last seven overall (5-2 ATS). The Blazers just ended a four-game road trip 3-1 (2-2 ATS) with a Wednesday night win in San Antonio, beating the Spurs 95-83 as three-point pups. They’ve won three straight at home (SU and ATS), including a dominating 125-104 win over the Jazz back on March 31 as six-point favorites.
The host has dominated this series the last few years, winning eight straight (5-3 ATS) and nine of 10. Portland is 8-2 ATS in those 10 meetings, including 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the Rose Garden. The Blazers got a 111-94 home win back on March 9 as 2 ½-point pups to improve to 22-7 ATS in the last 29 games against the Lakers and make the underdog 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings.
Los Angeles is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite of up to 4 ½ points, but it is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 roadies and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Portland is on a host of positive ATS trends, including 28-10 as a home ‘dog, 9-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 against Pacific Division teams and 4-0 on Fridays.
The Lakers have topped the total in seven of 10 games when playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they are on “under” streaks of 20-9-1 overall, 16-6-1 as a favorite, 6-1 on the road and 4-0 on Fridays. The Trailblazers have stayed under the total in 19 of 28 Friday games and five of seven when playing after a day off, but they’ve topped the total in four of five at home and five of seven as a home pup. In this rivalry, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Oregon.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (2-2) at Arizona (1-2)
The Diamondbacks will start newly acquired right-hander Jon Garland (14-8, 4.90 ERA last year with the Angels) at Chase Field when they take on N.L. West rival Los Angeles and rookie right-hander James McDonald, who made just six late-season appearances last year.
Los Angeles split its season-opening four-game set at San Diego, losing 4-3 Thursday night after giving up three runs in the eighth inning to squander a 3-1 lead. Despite that setback, the Dodgers are still on positive runs of 17-8 as a favorite and 11-3 coming off a loss.
Arizona posted a 9-8 win over Colorado in its season opener, then lost the next two games in Phoenix, including Wednesday’s 9-2 drubbing to close out the three-game series. The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last seven starts from the underdog role, but they are on upticks of 6-1 following a day off, 8-2 at home, 6-1 at home against right-handers, 5-1 in series openers and 10-3 in division games.
Garland made 32 starts last year with the Angels, going 7-5 with a 4.18 ERA in 18 home outings. Los Angeles went 10-3 in his last 13 starts (4-1 in his last five starts), with the 29-year-old going 6-2 with five no-decisions, despite a bloated 5.99 ERA. This will be the veteran’s first career start against the Dodgers.
McDonald made six relief appearances last year, four in the regular season and two in the National League Championship Series against the eventual World Series champion Phillies. The Dodgers lost five of those six games, though McDonald threw 11 1/3 shutout innings in his stints, allowing eight hits and three walks while striking out nine.
The Dodgers edged the Diamondbacks by two games last season to win the division title, claiming the last five meetings in this rivalry. However, Los Angeles posted only five more wins over Arizona the rest of the 2008 campaign, winning the season series by a slim 10-8 margin.
The over for Arizona is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-2 in division contests and 4-0 following a loss, and in this rivalry, the over is on stretches of 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in Phoenix. On the flip side, the under for the Dodgers is on rolls of 5-0 overall, 6-0 in division games and 4-0 on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (1-2) at L.A. Angels (1-2)
The Angels return to the field after Thursday’s game against Oakland was postponed due to the tragic death of rookie starter Nick Adenhart early Thursday following an auto accident. Los Angeles is scheduled to send Jared Weaver (11-10, 4.33 ERA in 2008) to the hill at Angel Stadium against Boston knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13 ERA in 2008).
Hours before being killed in an auto accident, Adenhart threw six shutout innings Wednesday night against Oakland, allowing seven hits and three walks while striking out five before exiting with a 3-0 lead. The Angels boosted that advantage to 4-0 in the seventh before collapsing in the final two innings of a 6-4 home loss. Los Angeles won the season opener Monday before dropping the next two against the Athletics, falling to 2-5 in its last seven outings since last year’s playoffs, but the Angels are still on runs of 11-5 following a loss and 23-11 against American League East foes.
Boston also dropped two of its first three at home to open the season, winning Game 1 against Tama Bay, then mustering just five runs in the next two games, including a 4-3 loss Thursday night. Despite the slow start, the Red Sox are still on rolls of 11-2 against the A.L. West, 7-1 on Friday, 5-1 as an underdog, 17-7 following a loss and 14-3 in series openers.
Los Angeles posted the best record in baseball last season at 100-62, then got swept in the first round of the playoffs by Boston, which won the first two games in Anaheim, then finished off the best-of-5 series with a 3-2 win at Fenway Park. However, the Angels are 9-3 in the last 12 clashes with the Red Sox.
Weaver dropped off a bit last season after a sterling first two years in the majors, with his ERA jumping from 3.91 in 2007 to 4.33 in 2008 over 30 starts and 176 2/3 innings, both career highs. The Angels went an even 5-5 in his last 10 starts, with Weaver going 3-2 with five no-decisions. But he did notch Los Angeles’ lone playoff win, a 5-4 victory at Boston in which he threw two innings of scoreless relief.
Weaver was 6-5 with a 3.71 ERA in 14 home starts last year, though the Angels went 5-1 in Weaver’s last six home outings. He was 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts against Boston last year, allowing eight runs on 16 hits in 10 2/3 innings. In six career starts against the Red Sox, he is 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA.
Wakefield also made 30 starts last season, with the Red Sox going 6-3 in his last nine regular-season outings as he went 4-3 with two no-decisions and a 4.66 ERA. In his lone playoff start, he got shelled by Tampa Bay for five runs on six hits – including three homers – in just 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 home blowout in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series.
Wakefield was just 3-7 with a 5.14 ERA in 16 road starts last year, and he took the loss in his only start against the Angels, a 5-3 road setback in July in which he allowed four runs on six hits, including two homers. For his career, Wakefield is 9-12 with a 4.80 ERA in 28 appearances (23 starts) against Los Angeles. The Sox are just 3-9 in Wakefield’s last 12 road starts.
The under for Boston is on runs of 4-1 overall and 20-8-2 in series openers, but the over is 4-1 in Wakefield’s last five starts and 4-0 in his last four road outings. Likewise, the over for Los Angeles is on tears of 18-8 in series openers, 7-3 with the Angels a chalk, 5-1-1 against right-handers and 5-1-1 following a loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 5-2 in Wakefield’s last seven starts against the Angels.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER
